New Idea ($WNC) | Trailer Cycle Troughs While Investors Panic
Wabash (WNC) is quietly building backlog, cutting costs, and buying back stock all while the market assumes freight is dead.
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Every Friday, I break down one early-stage setup the market’s overlooking.
It’s not a buy call, it’s a head start to the research. You get the idea. I do the work.
This week’s First Look covers a stock that’s fallen 72% from its highs… just as orders and backlogs start building again.
But before we get there, let me show you why this process works.
📈 From January 2024 to April 2024, my portfolio is up 129.23%.
YTD, after an incredible start to May, I’m up about 66%. All from setups like this. Mispriced, misunderstood, and loaded with optionality.
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This week’s First Look: Wabash National (WNC)
The market sees a busted trailer stock. I’m watching what looks like the start of a classic demand reset.
WNC is down over 70% since last year. But backlog is building, buybacks are rolling, and cost-cutting is in full swing.
This post will walk you through:
✅ What Wabash actually does
✅ What’s quietly shifting in their favor
✅ Key questions and early upside math
🧠 What Wabash Actually Does
Wabash National ($WNC) is a U.S.-based manufacturer of trailers and truck bodies, serving logistics, freight, and industrial transport customers.
But this isn’t just a trailer business anymore.
Core Segments:
Transportation Solutions (Primary Revenue Driver):
Dry and refrigerated trailers, flatbeds, tankersParts & Services:
Aftermarket sales, maintenance, and upfitting are growing in strategic importance
Innovation Stack:
DuraPlate® Panels: Composite materials for longer trailer life
EcoNex™ Materials: ESG-compliant, sustainability-focused trailer tech
TaaS (Trailers-as-a-Service): Subscription-based model targeting fleet customers
Strategic Moves:
Wabash Marketplace (Fernweh JV): Digitizing trailer sales and customer interactions
Wabash Parts (HTI JV): Expanding into higher-margin aftermarket
Electric + Autonomous Trailers: Early investment phase
WNC isn’t just a cyclical metal bender it’s trying to evolve the trailer business model itself.
🔥 Why It’s Interesting Now
The freight cycle has been brutal. Orders collapsed ~30% in 2024, and WNC’s stock followed down more than 70% from highs.
But something is quietly shifting under the surface:
Backlogs now cover 9 months of production, up from trough levels
WNC says 2025 deliveries despite increasing YOY will remain below replacement levels, meaning 2026 demand could be even stronger
Their CEO is already playing offense:
“We’re running our downturn playbook… to take costs out where necessary and align with near-term demand conditions.”
Historical capital efficiency has been strong: ROIC and ROCE averaged ~13% from 2016–2023
Buybacks are real: Share count down 5% annually since 2016
This isn’t just a bounce, it’s a start of a new cycle.
Backlog strength plus shareholder discipline is a combo I always look for in early turnarounds.
⚠ Questions I still Have
This is still an early-stage idea. Here’s what I need answered before this would become a position:
What does “normal” trailer demand look like over a full cycle?
How does WNC stack up to Competitors?
Do management incentives align with long-term shareholder returns?
Can WNC turn its parts, TaaS, and electrification efforts into real margin drivers?
What is the operating history of their current CEO and does he have the expertise to capitalize as the cycle turns?
📉 Back-of-the-Napkin Valuation (FCF-Based)
Let’s say WNC returns to $200M in FCF at the top of the next cycle, a level they’ve hit before.
Apply a 6x multiple, conservative for a cyclical manufacturer.
That gets you to:
$1.2B market cap
Current = $349M
243% upside, or a 51% CAGR over 3 years
That’s if execution and the cycle cooperate certainly still a big if.
WNC checks a lot of boxes:
✅ Real buybacks
✅ Backlog bottoming
✅ FCF leverage at scale
✅ Optionality from parts, tech, and services
It’s not in the portfolio yet, and may never be but if this cycle turns, WNC has the upside optionality I’m tracking early.
If the cycle plays out, and management keeps executing… Wabash could go from “left for dead” to a 3x in 3 years or more.
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This content is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial or investment advice. The opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, based on personal research and analysis, and do not reflect the views or advice of any financial institutions or licensed professionals. I do not have access to your personal financial situation, goals, risk tolerance, or investment preferences, and therefore cannot provide personalized investment recommendations. It is essential that you conduct your own research, carefully consider all relevant factors, and consult with a licensed financial advisor or other professional before making any investment decisions. Investing inherently involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. I am not responsible for any decisions, actions, or outcomes resulting from the use of this content. Always ensure that your investments align with your personal financial situation and long-term objectives.