InPost | The Locker Giant That Grew 57% a Year and Still Priced Below Its IPO
Down 40% from last year’s highs, InPost dominates delivery lockers with Apple-like fan loyalty. Is this “boring” logistics play Europe’s most mispriced compounder?
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The Turnaround Investment Newsletter
This article covers InPost (INPST.AS). A business to consumer logistics company in Europe with industry leading reviews, high growth, and low valuation.
Please note this is NOT a company I own. This is an idea I thought worth sharing.
By the end of this, you’ll know:
✅What they do.
✅Why they are interesting today.
✅What questions I still have.
✅The risks.
✅My back of the napkin valuation.
Before we jump in, I always share how my portfolio is performing.
From the start of 2024 to month end August 2025, my portfolio is up 299.66%.
This year alone, I’m sitting on +115.77% YTD through August.
All earned from setups like this. Mispriced, unloved, and no one paying attention.
I want to be clear, these are not the returns I expect, I hope for them but cannot expect them. My goal is to AVERAGE 30% per year. That means I can almost guarantee lower returns going forward and will also almost certainly have years of negative returns.
With that said back to the article.
What Does InPost Do?
InPost S.A. grew out of Rafal Brzoska’s first business, Integer.pl, which he launched in 1999 as a student to distribute leaflets. He nearly went under in the early years but persisted, eventually building Poland’s largest leaflet distribution network.
In 2006, Brzoska founded InPost to challenge the state-owned Polish Post. At the time, state monopoly rules allowed only Polish Post to deliver letters under 50 g. InPost bypassed the restriction by adding a 50 g metal plate to each letter. A creative way around the laws and it helped the company scale quickly. By 2007 it had already introduced internet-based parcel tracking.
The turning point came in 2009 when InPost rolled out its Paczkomat Automated Parcel Machines. Self-service lockers for sending and receiving parcels 24/7. Brzoska poured €25 m into the network and stuck with it through years of low revenue. After five years the lockers hit breakeven and became InPost’s core business.
In the 2010s InPost expanded into courier services, adding door-to-door delivery in 2016. Advent International invested in 2017, backing Brzoska while helping sharpen the focus on Poland and the locker flywheel.
In 2021 InPost listed on Euronext Amsterdam, raising ~€3.9 b in one of Europe’s largest IPOs that year. It also acquired French logistics group Mondial Relay, gaining immediate reach across France, Benelux, and Iberia.
From there growth accelerated. InPost handled ~744 m parcels in 2022 and a record 1.1 billion in 2024. Its network expanded to 46,955 lockers that year. In the UK, it first bought a 30 % stake in Menzies in 2023, then took full control in 2024, and in 2025 added courier Yodel. Today InPost runs nearly 50,000 lockers across Europe and continues to expand.
As of today, InPost reports revenue by geography:
Poland ≈48 %
Mondial Relay (Eurozone) ≈27 %
UK ≈15 %
This revenue is comes from three main pillars.
Out-of-home network of APMs and pick-up/drop-off points.
Door-to-door courier and fulfilment services for e-commerce.
Value-added services like marketing partnerships, insurance, and payment processing.
Why They Are Interesting
Fallen from Recent Highs
InPost is down over 40% from highs made less than 1 year ago and still below their IPO price from 2021.
Quickly Growing
Since 2018 InPost has grown revenue at a 57% CAGR driven organically and through acquisitions.
They continue to have really solid growth of 35% YoY in their most recent report which marked acceleration from previous quarters.
A great part about their growth is it is consistently above market meaning they are just taking more and more share.
Much of this growth is coming from new merchants which is a great sign as they expand and diversify their reliance on any one company.
And its no wonder these smaller to mid size merchants are flocking to them when they can get leading logistics and payment services all in one.
They have obviously figured out what people want and are expanding rapidly to capitalize on being the first mover to get their APM in as many locations as possible.
One way they are achieving this is through continued purchasing of other similar companies. Just recently on 7/9/25 they purchased the Spanish delivery company Sending and earlier this year bought the UK delivery company Yodel.
They have nailed the experience people are looking for and are now scaling it all across Europe.
Solid Returns on Capital
Any company that is investing back into themselves as fast as InPost is better have capable management that can get good returns on that capital.
Since 2019 the company has a pretty good ROIC and ROCE record. Median ROIC of 13.75% and ROCE of 17.2% during that time frame.
I wouldn’t consider these to be world class but for their industry is very good.
Highly Preferred by Consumers
This is where InPost really started to look interesting.
With any consumer facing company word of mouth and preference is what they will live or die on. And I have to say, InPost crushes here with an NPS score of 50.
For reference Costco’s NPS score is 50 according to sources I could find, and Apple’s is 48. This means users of InPost in Europe are as fanatic about them as frequent Costco goers or Apple users are about these companies in the US.
Just let that sink in.
But wait, in their core market. It is even higher.
Their NPS score in Poland matches that of Starbucks. Pretty incredible for a company that delivers packages.
Expanding Margins
You may see this and think expanding margins is weird since in their recent quarters they saw margins fall meaningfully.
According to management though margins fell due to pulled forward cost on their Yodel acquisition. They are working on rebranding and revamping that whole system so the drop in margins makes sense from that perspective.
Now they did just acquire another company, Sending. However I believe Yodel was far larger than Sending so the impact may be completely overshadowed by those pulled forward costs falling until next year.
Management expects margins to normalize from the effect of these integration costs by mid next year.
This is a company that is investing heavily in their future so it may take looking out a few years when their international markets reach the same profitability as Poland. But overall I think we are instore for long term margin expansion for the company.
Risks and Questions
Recession
As you would expect a company like InPost would be severely impact by an economic slowdown in Europe and especially Poland.
Before investing in this company it is worth taking a look at the macro landscape in Poland and the UK specifically to get an understanding of where we are trending. Is consumer spending on the uptrend?
Allegro Partnership
If you have read about the company before you have probably heard about their contract with Allegro. To my understanding Allegro is Polands largest E-Commerce company and they signed a contract in 2020 expiring in 2027 to deliver a certain number of packages each year through InPost.
Over the past few years though Allegro has started building out their own APM’s trying to reduce their reliance on InPost.
As of today Allegro packages make up about 18% of total revenues for InPost. Losing this partnership will impact the company.
The good news is InPost has tried hard to diversify. They have gone from 47% of their revenue coming from Allergro in 2020 to only 18% today. And the trend is continuing.
This is to say by 2027 when this partnership expires we may be in a world where the affect is around 10% of total revenue. Not nothing but for a company growing 30%+ revenues likely wouldn’t be down YoY even if they lost it all at once.
More work needs done to determine how this split will look but as of now InPost says less than 2% impact from Allegro trying to get users to move to their APM’s.
PS. If you go back and look at the NPS score chart, guess who was in dead last?…….. Allegro. So I feel comfortable saying they like and will almost certainly stick with InPost.
Execution
This is a fast moving company that is trying to capitalize on being a first move and cement their position as market leader through acquisitions and aggressive Capex.
If management does not purchase companies at reasonable prices, starts diluting shareholders, or fails to execute you could see a meaningful deterioration in the company.
New Technology
I believe their is potential for new tech like drone deliveries to disrupt their business but significant work would need to be done on where that is at and if that would disrupt their business significantly.
My initial thoughts are it is likely much further out that we anticipate especially in Europe who are generally slow adopters of new tech.
Though of course InPost could be huge beneficiaries. It may be much easier to get a drone to deliver a package to something like APM’s vs a home so they may see large benefits from new tech as well.
Valuation
Please note this is NOT a company I own. This is an idea I thought worth sharing.
Because this is not a comprehensive these more work would need done to confirm my valuation and estimations but typically I feel comfortable that I am in the ballpark for fair future values of a company.
First lets look at revenue out to year end 2029.
I believe by around this year it is reasonable we would see more mature business internationally for the company which is why I picked this year.
From now until then InPost should have some very solid growth. Starting from a 2024 base I will assume the following growth by year.
2025 - 35% (Bottom End of Guidance)
2026 - 25%
2027 - 10% (Affected by Allegro Partnership Ending)
2028 - 20%
2029 - 16%
These assumptions get us to total 2029 revenue of PLN 28.21B. According to some analyst forecasts that appears to be on the low end of their range.
For margins lets look at where Poland, their most mature market is.
As of today their FCF margin by IFRS measures even after growth Capex is 19.4% and even for Poland will likely increase.
As long as the company keeps executing a company total FCF margin of 16% by year end 2029 feel very doable.
This implies total FCF of PLN 4.51B.
Now onto the multiple.
For a company that has solid returns on capital, strong growth even after 2029, and a median price to FCF since 2021 of 39x. I feel comfortable assigning a 25x multiple.
This implies a £26.42B market cap, 4.73x today’s level. And assuming 0 change in share count which management has been disciplined on. A share price of ~$53.
These target would get you to about a 44% CAGR over the next 4.25 years.
Pretty solid for a company who at their core, just delivers packages.
What do you think of the company?
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Strong growth, consumer love (NPS), and network effects of lockers. But I think the thesis may need more work on acquisitions, competitive threats, and valuation multiples. The risk is that InPost turns into a capital-intensive, mid-margin logistics operator rather than a high-margin tech-like platform — which would justify lower multiples.
Geographic Concentration - Despite international expansion, nearly half of revenue still comes from Poland. If Allegro and other players squeeze them there, the international diversification may not offset near-term headwinds.
Technology & Future Disruption - AI-enabled route optimization, EV delivery fleets, or peer-to-peer networks may hit margins faster than drones.
Macroeconomic Exposure - Recession called out, but Poland and the UK are more volatile markets, and discretionary e-commerce spending is sensitive to downturns. Growth is tied to consumer parcel volumes. A few years of stagnation or contraction could derail the compounding assumptions.
Capital Structure & Shareholder Returns - what is their debt levels? . InPost has funded expansion partly with leverage. Rising rates in Europe raise refinancing risks.
Competitive Dynamics - Allegro is called out, but Amazon, DHL, DPD, GLS, and local couriers are not. All are aggressively investing in parcel lockers and last-mile services. Saying “they nailed the consumer experience” may be true in Poland, but brand loyalty and NPS in Western Europe may not translate, especially when Amazon can leverage Prime to shift habits.
Nice write-up! I'd also want to look at Management to Shareholder alignment