Boeing | The Proven Engineer Quietly Turning a $600B Backlog into Cash

Kelly Ortberg isn’t pitching dreams, he’s fixing Boeing. With quality scores up, MAX production set to ramp, and a record Qatar order locked, the inflection point may already be here.

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Boeing finally has a real operator in charge and the market hasn’t caught up.

Kelly Ortberg, the new CEO, built Rockwell Collins into a $30B aerospace powerhouse. Now he’s ripping out bloat, restoring engineering discipline, and putting Boeing back on offense.

Free cash flow is set to flip positive in the second half of 2025, the company’s first real inflection since the MAX crisis.

And in May, Boeing locked in a $96B widebody order from Qatar Airways. The biggest deal in company history, and a clear sign that trust is returning. The backlog now tops $600B and continues to grow.

The stock is up, but the story’s just getting started.

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Now lets get to the article. Here’s the plan:

✅What Boeing Does

✅My Full Thesis

✅Risks and What I am Watching

✅Valuation

✅Portfolio Update

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What Boeing Does

Boeing is one of the world’s largest aerospace and defense companies. Its business spans three major segments:

• Commercial Airplanes: Boeing designs and sells jets like the 737, 787 Dreamliner, and 777X often booked years in advance with hefty deposits and decade-long backlogs.

• Defense, Space & Security: This segment supplies military aircraft, satellites, missile defense systems, and secure communications infrastructure to global governments.

• Global Services: Once a plane is delivered, Boeing collects high-margin revenue for years through parts, maintenance, retrofits, pilot training, and analytics. These services span both commercial and defense fleets.

  

  (Green) Commercial Airplane Revenue, (Blue) Defense, Space and Security Revenue, (Light Blue) Global Services Revenue

What really matters isn’t that Boeing makes planes. It’s that only two companies in the world can at scale, speed, and with government trust.

For large commercial aircraft, the only real choice is Boeing or Airbus. If one stumbles, customers can’t just walk. There’s nowhere else to go.

That’s why even at its lowest moments, Boeing’s production slots remain valuable. Airline execs and defense buyers know that moving to the other competitor means forfeiting their place and waiting up to a decade for delivery.

Trying to disrupt this? Good luck. You’d need:

• $100B+ in capital

• Global regulatory clearance

• A certified, just-in-time supply chain

• And a backlog of long-term contracts before your first delivery

The moat here isn’t about narrative. It’s about physics. Massive scale, brutal switching costs, and the kind of regulatory capture that makes new competition nearly impossible.

The Thesis

Boeing’s turnaround now shows real operational momentum. Evident in improved quality, landmark orders, and moves to reassert control. This isn't just hopeful talk, it's tangible progress across the board.